Development of a new Sund & Bælt Transport Model

Description

The contracting authorities (hereinafter "S&B") are putting out to tender a framework agreement regarding the development of a new Sund & Bælt Transport model. The winning tenderer is expected to perform the following services: - Develop a new transport model for S&B for both passenger and freight transport. - Collect and manage existing and new data suitable for estimating the new transport model. Lot 1: S&B has decided to develop a transport model, which shall cover all the existing and planned links. The application of the transport model will vary among existing infrastructure in operation like the Great Belt link and the Øresund link, infrastructure under construction like the Femern Belt link, and infrastructure under planning or in earlier stages like fixed links for Kattegat, Helsingør-Helsingborg, or Als-Fyn. No matter the stage, the transport model shall focus on transport demand in the relation among traffic, prices, and revenue, i.e. on traffic growth, changes in destination, and choice of mode/crossing for infrastructure relevant for S&B. The model shall include both passenger and freight traffic. The model will be used to: - Forecast revenue on both short and long term, - Set price and discount structure for the future Femern Belt link, - Analyse changes in prices and discounts in general, - Analyse traffic on all current and future links of S&B including changes in demand and competition to e.g. ferries and, - Forecast induced traffic for new links. On behalf of S&B, a consultancy firm has carried out a preliminary study describing the model structures for a passenger and a freight model to meet these demands. Furthermore, the preliminary study gives an overview of existing data and describes the needed data collection for the estimation of the specified models. The final report for the study can be found in sub-appendix 1.1. It is important to highlight that the transport model focuses on demand, i.e. traffic growth and the distribution of traffic on links and alternatives of S&B. Consequently, the model will have more focus on long distance trips and e.g. leisure travel than most other transport models. Therefore, traffic should be reported in yearly figures. It will not include traditional route choice or modelling of congestion. When necessary, the Sund & Bælt transport model will interact with the Danish National Transport Model (LTM) for the purpose of generating e.g. level-of-service. It is crucial that the model is user friendly and can be run by S&B employees with short run times. Furthermore, the implementation of the model shall enable changes in traditional input variables as well as level-of-service inputs from e.g. LTM. The Consultant is expected to perform the following Services in general: - Development of a new transport model for S&B for both passenger and freight transport. The model should be tailored for the required analytical purposes of S&B. - Collection and managing of existing and new data suitable for estimation of the new Sund & Bælt transport model. S&B expects a close cooperation with the Consultant and will assist in multiple activities related to tasks within both data collection and model estimation. The development of the transport model is planned in two steps: - The step 1 model covers the Great Belt link and the Øresund link and is estimated on existing data. - The step 2 model covers existing, planned, and potential links as specified in sub-appendix 1.1 and is estimated on existing data as well as newly collected revealed and stated preference data. It is expected that the data collection is carried out in 2023. Collection and data processing of new data should be finalized no later than January 2024. The step 1 model should be designed and finalized while new data is collected. The step 1 model will, together with the new data, be evaluated by S&B in the beginning of 2024. Based on this evaluation, S&B will decide whether or not to initiate the step 2 model development which should then be finalized by February 2025. Afterwards, the Consultant should assist in model implementation and assistance.