81284370-Establishment of a Third-Party-Monitoring System in the Lake Chad Region (Cameroon, Chad, Nigeria, Niger)

Description

For over a decade, the so-called Boko Haram-crisis has been affecting the Lake Chad region comprising of states and regions in Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Nigeria. Combined with other security threats, this violent extremist insurgency has killed thousands of civilians, led to widespread displacement, and has crippled the region"s economy. Recent developments such as the Islamic State in West-Africa Province (ISWAP) attacks on the Boko Haram (Jam?'at Ahl as-Sunnah lid-Da'wah wa'l-Jih?d, JAS) stronghold in the Sambisa forest are testimony to the highly fluid context that requires independent corroboration of information to allow for fact-based decision-making and programme steering. The consolidation of ISWAP control over communities and territories risk to further negatively influence the already weakened social contract between the Lake Chad region"s governments and their populace. As part of its continuously growing engagement, Germany has advocated a more coherent and coordinated response in the region and has adapted its approach to stabilization in the Lake Chad region in support of the Lake Chad Basin Commission"s "Regional Strategy for the Stabilization, Recovery & Resilience of the Boko Haram-affected areas of the Lake Chad Basin Region" (RSS). In addition to the Governors" Forum, which aims at strengthening the sub-national coordination and leadership from within the affected territories, Germany together with other partners supports the Regional Stabilisation Facility (RSF) of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The RSF aims at stabilising locations selected on the basis of political and military strategic considerations to have an impact on the overall conflict dynamics and extending government presence into areas previously under terrorist control. Within the wider framework of international support to the region, there is a strong interest in monitoring conflict dynamics and broader security and political developments in the region to mitigate strategic and political risks and in assessing the effectiveness of the stabilisation engagement in the region. The monitoring of foreign policy-relevant dynamics sought via this tender is not a standard Third-Party-Monitoring (TPM) service, which for example could be limited to verification of aid-delivery. The contractor is responsible for providing information, in the form of reports and raw data, relevant for donor-decision making on the UNDP RSF for the Lake Chad Basin (LCB), as well as for decision making by the Federal Foreign Office (FFO) on overall foreign policy considerations. The geographical focus for the TPM-System shall be in general (but not exclusively limited to) (1) Cameroon, North and Far-North regions, (2) Chad, Lac and Hadjer-Lamis regions, (3) Niger, Diffa region, and (4) Nigeria, Borno, Adamawa and Yobe states. For this purpose, methodologically competent sources in the field must be systematically directed to gather relevant data, which often will be fragmentary and/ or contradictory. This data must then be structured and processed to provide for nuanced answers on FFO and RSF-donor questions. The service provider is not expected to deliver definitive answers on any and all questions but needs to indicate degrees of likelihood or even limitations in answering questions. In order to be able to provide the required services, the tenderer must demonstrate the capability to design and manage monitoring processes, to independently collect data in the above-mentioned project areas, and to critically assess, analyze and process this data in order to make it useful for operational decision-making of RSF-donors and FFO project work. Lot 1: In order to be able to provide the required services, the tenderer must demonstrate the following capabilities: 1. Capability to design and manage monitoring processes for stabilization, development and humanitarian projects and their respective political red lines; 2. Capability to independently collect data in the project areas in selected areas of the Lake Chad Region (Cameroon, Chad, Niger, Nigeria) through local networks (teams of field enumerators/ researchers/ assistants); 3. Capability to critically assess, analyze and process this data in order to make it useful for operational decision-making of RSF-donors and FFO project work. The tenderer must provide a pool of field enumerators/ researchers/ assistants to gather raw data from the field/ project locations. The following deliverables and analyses are expected for all the above-mentioned regions: - Bi-annual community perception reports of the general security situation for up to twelve Local Government Areas/communes/départements or cross border locations/ location clusters (to be discussed and defined between the commissioning party and the contractor); annual reports are to be divided into two waves with a period of min. six months between waves. The questions to be investigated relate to community perceptions of the overall security situation, the presence and behaviour of various actors, influence/ control over the population, access to goods and services (justice, police and security forces, administrative presence), law and order, state of the social contract, international interventions, youth engagement and prospects and perceptions of political participation. - Bi-annual conflict trend analyses based on the actual development of the security situation, including security-related events (number of incidents, types, location, casualties/ fatalities, violence against civilians including attribution, etc.), activities, presence and influence/ control of non-state armed groups, crime levels, etc. to be cross-referenced and compared with findings of the community perception reports (see above). - Bi-annual analysis of the assumptions and outcomes of the RSF regarding the utilization of outputs and their contribution to an overall improvement or deterioration of the situation in the region. This analysis shall be based on the comparison of deliverables 1 and 2 and the triangulation of RSF data as well as data made available by other implementing agencies or organizations. It shall serve the purpose of cross-checking the strategic relevance and underlying assumptions of RSF stabilisation measures and support the identification of possible priorities for future location selection. - Monthly status report and availability for follow-up discussions for up to twelve locations (here villages, town, municipalities, communes, may include cross-border locations/ location clusters) where RSF (or other programmes) activities are implemented, planned or considered. The questions to be investigated relate to location-specific government security control, status of local administration, space for civil society. Of the twelve locations to be monitored, never more than six will change per month or be replaced by new project locations (or cross border locations). - Up to six of the reports listed below are required in total per month. However, these may vary in composition and may differ from month to month, according to FFO requirements. o Up to two conflict trends analyses on developments related to violent extremist organizations (including (youth) recruitment) in all four regions, focusing on ISWAP, JAS, Bakura faction as per result of monthly discussions between contractor and authority. o Up to two reports on regional or national political developments relevant to the broader security and stability of the region(s) in question. o Up to two delivery reports from border crossing to destination concerning the observation of movement of people and goods as well as the delivery of humanitarian aid. o Up to two risk assessment reports regarding the activities and behaviour of local self-defense and community vigilante groups, hunters, etc. with respect to political red lines. o Up to two ad-hoc analysis on location-selection taking into account the results of the perception as well as conflict trend analyses as well as other existing data sources (to be delivered within two weeks). o Up to two location spot checks with a focus on the output of project activities under the RSF (e.g. asset check lists, visibility and community attribution of projects, community inclusion and beneficiary selection, use of assets by local population etc.). o Up to two sector-specific reports (e.g. Education, Health, Trade/Farming, Goods, etc.) on degree of JAS/ ISWAP/ Bakura faction-influence/control/benefit. - Pro-active ad-hoc briefings/ reports and availability to discuss via video conference developments significant for project implementation (such as large-scale military operations, fundamental power shifts or important developments in monitored locations) and availability for monthly donor briefings. - In case of need and in line with the service provider"s capabilities, deliverables mentioned above can be substituted with related tasks. - The service provider is required to share the collected raw data with the FFO upon request in a format to be discussed between service provider, GIZ and FFO.